Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season/August
August It's technically been August for a little over an hour now, so I guess it's time to start a new header. and with that comes an AoI! When will the fun stop? Cyclone1(01:09 UTC -1/08/2007) Week1 AoI: North Gulf Stalled out frontal boundary in the Gulf. TWC has mentioned this, saying that this area needs to be watched for the formation of a possible low. A few models develop this, taking into the Panhandle as a depression. Interesting? Cyclone1(01:09 UTC -1/08/2007) :Not unless you're making vacation plans for the Panhandle. -- SkyFury 04:10, 1 August 2007 (UTC) ::I think more likely a storm will form EAST of Florida. -Winter123 04:24, 1 August 2007 (UTC) :::No, I think the Gulf is definitely the place to watch. Just west of Florida. Upper level winds are nearly perfect, SST's are very warm, all we need is one flare up of convection, then all eyes on the Gulf. Cyclone1(13:27 UTC -1/08/2007) ::::Convection flaring up nicely, now. Cyclone1(14:21 UTC -1/08/2007) :::::Recon is flying out tomorrow. (What? Cyclone1, you're seeing things!!) Nope, it's true. This will most likely be 90L later today. Cyclone1(15:45 UTC -1/08/2007) ::::::I was just saying because the GFS develops it basically on land, whereas the CMC moves it over florida before blowing it up into a hurricane, which is the scenario I'd prefer. I doubt this will be a TD if it moves onto land like the models predict. -Winter123 18:42, 1 August 2007 (UTC) :::::::Too early to make a judgment on this one. It's definately an area to watch. Right now, though it doesn't even have a low pressure center. -- SkyFury 21:13, 1 August 2007 (UTC) Gone. Cyclone1(22:20 UTC -4/08/2007) :Yeah, I never did get what the NHC was so excited about. Early on, I thought it might have had a chance, but I wrote it off a couple of days ago. -- SkyFury 03:23, 5 August 2007 (UTC) Week 2 AoI: North of Bermuda What the frick is this? We appear to have a very intense ball of deep convection in the middle of nowhere. It doesn't even really show up on the surface analysis. Logic wants to tell me it's nothing, but that's a lot of bright colors for an aimless thunderhead. -- SkyFury 03:16, 10 August 2007 (UTC) :?!?!?!?!?! It looks like it just blew up from the end of a front under extreme shear and created a favorable upper level environment for itself. It looks like it already has a broad LLC because it was part of a front, and again, all shear is passing north of it (It's way up over Northern Vermont...) as it somehow blew up an upper level High over itself. Could it be an out-of-nowhere Dean? Maybe this year WILL be interesting after all! :D :Great catch by the way! -Winter123 05:57, 10 August 2007 (UTC) ::Hmm... that's way cool! First of all, an AoI I didn't declare (wtf?!) and, it came from ntohing! Chances are likely low, but man, it is impressive. Cyclone1(14:17 UTC -10/08/2007) :::GODDANGIT! All the fun stuff happens when I'm away! But, yeah, not only does the NHC seem completely oblivious to it, but it's there, it's strong, and I think it's rotating. This one might have a shot. :::Now, can someone please tell me how Chantal was? 68.100.190.56 ::::Aw, it's nowhere to be seen anymore? Gone as quickly as it came up/. -Winter123 18:53, 10 August 2007 (UTC) :::::Oh it's there, but the shear tore it apart and scattered its remains across the north Atlantic. -- SkyFury 21:45, 10 August 2007 (UTC) Just a blob. Gone, likely not coming back. Cyclone1(22:03 UTC -10/08/2007) :That's one wierd looking blob. Not looking like much now, but still, it should be dying, right? (Not trying to imply anything). It's not going to develop, but it's not going away either... 68.100.190.56 04L.DEAN See the archive on Dean. 05L.Erin AoI: East Carribean Interesting little blob in the Carib here. A few (that means multiple) global models develop this sucker. Conditions are good and getting better ahead of it. Could be a Gulf storm. Thoughts? Cyclone1(01:59 UTC -9/08/2007) :Thoughts- In a normal season I'd say it's a no-brainer this will develop. Almost no shear and great convection. But it's 2007 so right when you think it's about to be named it'll just go 'poof' and blue sky is all that will be left -Winter123 04:49, 9 August 2007 (UTC) ::Haha, excellent point. Joe Bastardi expects a tropical storm at least, and the EURO, CMC, and NOGAPS models all develop it. Maybe it'll be like TS Bret in 05, but stronger and further north. Cyclone1(21:39 UTC -9/08/2007) :::Are you talking about the thing near Jamaica? It is FAR too early to say anything with regards to this one. Predicting it to be a tropical storm is like predicting a fetus to grow into the man that finds a cure for cancer. -- SkyFury 03:16, 10 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Apparently, the NHC seems to really like this fetus. It puts it as a "High-amplitude tropical wave" (just like the one off of Africa), and only recently took it off of the development page. It's been pretty consistent with it's doings, though, so I think, a day later, it is only SOMEWHAT too early to say something about this one (no offense). 68.100.190.56 The 12Z NAM shows a well established tropical storm moving into the Gulf soon. I know, I know, it's the NAM, which is less reliable than the CMC, but still it's interesting. Slow development means just that....sloooow development. Cyclone1(16:59 UTC -11/08/2007) :Convection has significantly increased over the past six hours, but it still doesn't have a low pressure center associated with it. -- SkyFury 02:27, 12 August 2007 (UTC) - I put this in because it tracked into the gulf before developing. 68-100-190-56 11:16, 15 August 2007 (UTC) 91L.INVEST Yep. Located in the Yucatan Strait at the moment. Looks very marginal; but it does seem to be consolidating more and more. We'll see what the 10:30 advisory says about it. Cainer91 14:32, 13 August 2007 (UTC) :Could Erin come out from this one? RoswellAtup 14:40, 13 August 2007 (UTC) ::Well, it's tough to say right now, but it does have several things going for it: the ULL that was inhibiting development is moving away, shear is low, and SST's are practically boiling. However, right now it's just a trough of low pressure: no LLC or anything, just an area of convection. However, if it moves slowly enough, it is possible that it could develop. Cainer91 14:55, 13 August 2007 (UTC) :::I'm saying that this needs to be watched closer than TD4 right now. WE could get TD5 from this before all is said and done. Cyclone1(16:58 UTC -13/08/2007) UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. From the TWO. Could we get 2 depressions today?! Cyclone1(17:01 UTC -13/08/2007) :The Atlantic has awakened. If this thing wants to come up through the Panhandle and into Georgia, I'd welcome it. We desperately need some cooling off down here. -- SkyFury 20:29, 13 August 2007 (UTC) ::Sorry Eric, it's a Texan. Cyclone1(20:49 UTC -13/08/2007) :::NRL has 91L almost as strong as Tropical Depression Four: 30 knots and 1006 mbars. But, there is literally one thunderstorm, so it's not a tropical depression yet. But watch out when the convection does start to build. Cainer91 02:12, 14 August 2007 (UTC) ::::It's sort of runnin' outta water. The Gulf Coast isn't that far. Cyclone1 seems to think it's headed to Texas, but it lookes to me like it's going north. -- 24.98.83.29 02:35, 14 August 2007 (UTC) TCFA issued. Jake52 My talk 06:06, 14 August 2007 (UTC) :What's a TCFA? RoswellAtup 07:21, 14 August 2007 (UTC) ::Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. Most, if not all of the models bring it to Texas, it's not just me. Cyclone1(11:45 UTC -14/08/2007) :::It's looking very good, and there's no doubt in my mind that it will be upgraded to Tropical Depression Five at the 5:30 update. Thunderstorm activity is consolidating, it's moving slow enough, and the SST's and shear are perfect. There isn't really anything to stop it. Lucky that it only has a couple of days to intensify. Cainer91 15:54, 14 August 2007 (UTC) Yeah, the latest TWO, says a TD may be forming. Cyclone1(16:33 UTC -14/08/2007) :Well in the gulf these couple of days can be enough to create a pretty potent storm, or even a hurricane. -- WmE 18:04, 14 August 2007 (UTC) ::I would be pretty surprised if this thing becomes a hurricane. I see a 45-50 knot Tropical Storm Erin crossing the Panhandle in three or four days. -- SkyFury 18:45, 14 August 2007 (UTC) :::It's going towards Texas. I'd say a landfall south of Houston as a moderate TS. Cyclone1(22:01 UTC -14/08/2007) ::::I'm more inclined to say Louisiana, say anywhere from Sabine Pass to Grand Chenier. I agree with you on probable intensity (40-50 knots). Its organization continues to improve. I would not be surprised to see it classified as Tropical Depression Five by the 11pm advisory period. It sure looks the part. -- SkyFury 23:55, 14 August 2007 (UTC) 05L.NONAME :Well, according to NRL, we now have Tropical Depression Five. And, what a cute little ball of convection it has! I expect Erin by at least 5:30 PM tomorrow. Cainer91 02:00, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::Reminds me of Bonnie, but going the other way. Cyclone1(02:13 UTC -15/08/2007) Tropical Depression Five Offical. Tropical Storm Watches issued. Cyclone1(02:37 UTC -15/08/2007) :Just call me Carnac ;). Cyclone1, I believe you called for TD Four at an 11pm advisory, but that didn't happen until later. I called it spot on. Just a mild ego trip, please excuse me ;). Texas! Why Texas? We need the rain up here in the southeast, they don't need another drop down there. We've been in 100-degree heat for the past week and the tropics aren't helping. -- SkyFury 03:18, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::Mother Nature is not being kind to the southern U.S. this year. Bob rulz 03:28, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :::This is not the kind of tropical activity the world needs (Flossie, Dean, 05L Erin , and Sepat). 68-100-190-56 10:52, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::::LOL Eric. The reason I say Texas is because... well, the big cone that the NHC makes... it's pointing towards Texas. I would LOVE a nice TD for the southeast, but it's just not in the cards. Cyclone1(14:09 UTC -15/08/2007) :::::No, I was asking, lightheartedly, why the storm was going to Texas and not to the Panhandle. On another note, I'm sorry, I have a hard time buying the recon plane's report and I think NHC does too. It looks like a 30 kt depression that's about to become a storm, not a disorganized thing that's barely a tropical cyclone. -- SkyFury 15:13, 15 August 2007 (UTC) Forecast is 45 mph around Corpus Christi (one of the worst affected areas in Texas's anti-drought). It might actually be almost a good (not to climatology) thing if Dean took an unexpected northerly turn straight through the ridge. I went to Dulles yesterday and the dust was worse than it is on the Serengeti. It would be great if they had a system for pumping Texas water to the rest of the country. 68-100-190-56 15:24, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :(Edit conflicts! Can't get a word in edgewise!) I don't know why it's going towards Texas, it just is. Sorry if my response didn't seem lioghthearted, it was meant to be. Cyclone1(15:28 UTC -15/08/2007) ::-Conflicts? Nothing going on here that I can see :) 68-100-190-56 15:32, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :::Edit conflicts are when two people try to post at the same time, the second poster gets the cold shoulder and has to post again. Cyclone1(15:34 UTC -15/08/2007) ::::No, I meant I couldn't see it. Literally. Probably because I haven't been looking at the times *can't see past his own nose without thinking about something else :). (It was kind of subtle, but it was also a reference to TCs, as in, "there's nothing going on out there). And now look at this, there's these two (sorry, THREE) whole posts of complete nothingness. Should we delete them? 68-100-190-56 15:39, 15 August 2007 (UTC) Nah they're fine. Cyclone1(15:45 UTC -15/08/2007) Tropical Storm Erin 10:15 (CDT) update brings it to a tropical storm! Cyclone1(15:28 UTC -15/08/2007) :That fast? That's six hours early. Same thing with Dean, it shouldn't be 60 mph right now either. Well, any news is good news except for Texas. 68-100-190-56 15:31, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::Yep, that fast. Recon found TS winds right after the Adv was issued. Cyclone1(15:33 UTC -15/08/2007) :::Erin looks like it may curve more northwestward soon. Cyclone1(15:52 UTC -15/08/2007) ::::Mmm? What sat pictures do you derive this from? 68-100-190-56 15:58, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :::::Meh, looking at it again I think I'm wrong. Cyclone1(16:24 UTC -15/08/2007) ::Texas really doesn't need this. It'll cool them off but many rivers in Texas remain above flood stage. -- SkyFury 21:08, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :::I think the figure is around half, though I'm probably off by about 25% either way. Anyway, this season is beginning to get evil. 68-100-190-56 21:40, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::::The tropics'll do that to you. And besides, flooding could turn out to be minimal, we don't really know. And Dean could become big in the Caribbean and not greatly affect land areas. 05's Emily certainly knocked Mexico around, but it wasn't exactly guilty of genocide. It's August and the active cycle hasn't gone away. When the tropics are hot, you're going to have threats like this. -- SkyFury 23:55, 15 August 2007 (UTC) Hits with 40- 43 mph winds. Look at that on the sat pictures, almost like a non-trop MCS. Texas might be in for it. Hope this isn't another Allison (I give it a 4% chance of being one). 68-100-190-56 02:56, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :Sat is at 0 hours to landfall. I just discovered this, but there it is, makin' landfall on Texas with winds of up to 40 mph. It's organized as well. This'll make hell for Southern and Western Texas, not to mention Oklahoma. 68-100-190-56 11:13, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::Last advisory written. Cyclone1(14:39 UTC -16/08/2007) :::Erin sure doesn't want to be forgotten, it's flooding out Texas. Cyclone1(15:17 UTC -17/08/2007) "It's sort of runnin' outta water. The Gulf Coast isn't that far. Cyclone1 seems to think it's headed to Texas, but it looks to me like it's going north. -- 24.98.83.29 02:35, 14 August 2007 (UTC)" -- Hehehe. Sorry, I love being right. First time since Beryl I've been right about landfall before a storm was classified. Cyclone1(15:24 UTC -17/08/2007) Erin now has more advisories from the HPC than the NHC! What's the record on how long the HPC has tracked a storm once it made landfall? 4.154.7.251 01:04, 19 August 2007 (UTC) :I think its 13 days. Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. Cyclone1(03:51 UTC -19/08/2007) ::Last advisory issued by the HPC. It's no longer a tropical depression, but heavy rains continue from Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas; 2 people were killed today and 3 remain missing. Bob rulz 07:11, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :::My bad, that wasn't the last advisory. I forgot that they continue to release advisories even after it's downgraded from a tropical depression. Still some rain associated with it, but not much. Last advisory has been issued now. Bob rulz 05:34, 21 August 2007 (UTC) Week 3 AoI: Another Day, Another (African) Wave Excuse the length of the title, but it does appear another wave is ready to come off of the coast, and not only that, but a few models develop an Invest-equivalent low, with practically all of them putting something in the Central Atlantic. I'm not exactly sure if this is really that big, but the convection on land does look promising. 68-100-190-56 13:36, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :I don't see anything of interest out there, but if there is a low with any convection with it and the conditions are as good a NHC is saying they are for Dean, then I could see something forming. -- SkyFury 15:22, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::This might just be a problem with the models, but I'm not sure (every single one develops it into at least a low, not necessarily closed off, but a low), since it would be quite a coincidence. I would, however, suspect than anything there would have somewhat of a chance of forming. 68-100-190-56 15:29, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :::GFS turns it into a hurricane after Dean's second landfall. Link. 68-100-190-56 11:31, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Doesn't seem too likely, it develops it at a record low latitude. Cyclone1(14:45 UTC -16/08/2007) It doesn't, does it? But other models develop it higher. I'm not sure the low would track that far south anyway. It certainly is possible though. 68-100-190-56 16:00, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :CMC runs it into Georgia/Carolinas as a hurricane, developing much higher. Still can't figure out what it's developing though. 68-100-190-56 17:21, 16 August 2007 (UTC) I'm going to make a few enters here so that the next post will stand out, ok? That's better Anyway, the wave is now looking pretty nice, with the low still mostly separate. It's been looking good for a while now, but I haven't been paying attention. CMC predicts a cyclone from the low and the wave, but the wave shows now signs of development besides impressive convection, so I'm not sure what kind of drugs it's on this time. 68-100-190-56 21:23, 17 August 2007 (UTC) ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE E ATLC ALONG 32W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BROAD ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE SURROUNDING LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD...ESPECIALLY FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 28W-37W. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL NEAR THIS CIRCULATION WITH ONLY ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED NEAR 16N32W. A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 24W-34W...WHICH MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE S OF THE ITCZ. They're wrong about the convection thing, by the way. IP 01:05, 18 August 2007 (UTC) :Mention in the TWO. Looks like nothing. Cyclone1(21:02 UTC -19/08/2007) ::THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW NEAR BARBADOS APPEARS UNLIKELY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...HOWEVER...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Hmm.. latest TWO is more interesing. Cyclone1(21:35 UTC -19/08/2007) :::Hmm. That's slightly disconcerting. If that countinues, it will probably be more the lack of information than any bad news. It could develop, it could be nothing. There's just no way to know. We just have to wait and see. -- SkyFury 22:14, 19 August 2007 (UTC) 92L.INVEST That blob of thunderstorms east of the Bahamas. Anyway, shear is becoming lower, so it does have some potential to develop. No surface low right now, but one could potentially form later this week. Cainer91 14:27, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :50% bet that Felix would could out from this blob... RoswellAtup 15:02, 20 August 2007 (UTC) ::Good chance of Felix, but also probably a fishspinner. 69.86.16.159 17:24, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :::TCFA issued. 10 bucks says we get Felix outta this. Cyclone1(18:14 UTC -20/08/2007) :::Please let it head for the Carolinas. We need rain badly. 4.152.3.6 20:16, 20 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Don't get too excited, there's not even a low pressure center around this thing and Lord knows we don't need a hurricane down here, just a rainstorm to cool us off. -- SkyFury 20:21, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :::::There most certainly is a low pressure, albeit broad. It's forecast to head NW, then W, then SW, then into Florida. SHIPS takes it to 70kts. Cyclone1(20:40 UTC -20/08/2007) ::::::It also has an anticyclone over it. Conditions are perfect. Cyclone1(20:46 UTC -20/08/2007) :::NHC's surface analysis says no low exists. -- SkyFury 21:03, 20 August 2007 (UTC) ::::That analysis is nearly 12 hours old. Cyclone1(21:33 UTC -20/08/2007) I think we're splitting hairs here. The point is it's not much and I have heard nothing from NHC saying there's a low pressure. It could develop, but it will be at least this weekend before that happens, it's just too disorganized to get anywhere fast. -- SkyFury 21:51, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :Danger area. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/203526.shtml?basin#contents Cyclone1(22:44 UTC -20/08/2007) ::Yep, we may have Felix on our hands soon. - Enzo Aquarius 23:11, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :::I still don't think we'll have anything to worry about until at least Friday. -- SkyFury 23:32, 20 August 2007 (UTC) Worsening conditions. No more danger area. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:25, 21 August 2007 (UTC) Gone. Cyclone1(20:25 UTC -21/08/2007) :You were saying something about a Felix? -- SkyFury 21:05, 22 August 2007 (UTC) ::Uh.. err... well you see... uh.. Oh, shut up! "Informal Betting for Strongest 2005 storm name: Lee- HurricaneEric" Hah! Cyclone1(02:03 UTC -23/08/2007) :::Cute. I made that bet over two years ago, Cyclone1. -- SkyFury 22:24, 23 August 2007 (UTC) ::::I was just making a joke, dude. I know there's know way you could have predicted the strength of Lee before the season started. And several models were calling for the development of a storm from 92L at the time, so you can understand my prediction. Cyclone1(00:55 UTC -24/08/2007) :::::Suuure you were...;) -- SkyFury 17:04, 25 August 2007 (UTC) Week 4 AoI: Extratropical cyclone west of Azores You guys gotta see thins thing! http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e244/zdtadmin/GOES15452007237xFin2R.jpg It looks like a the beginning of several extratropical-origin hurricanes I've seen. (Noel, Perfect Storm, Vince, Epsilon etc.) No mention from the NHC, but this cyclone should be remembered! Cyclone1(17:38 UTC -25/08/2007) :It has a low-level rotation to it. I emailed the NHC asking what they thought about it (since it's not even in the TWD). I'll post the response if I receive one. Cyclone1(18:01 UTC -25/08/2007) ::It wasn't mentioned in the TWD because, well, it's not tropical. And, the water it's over is only 20-22 degrees. Even Epsilon had warmer temperatures than that. If it does become a freak of nature and make the transition, I will eat my words, but as of right now, I can't see anything (sub)tropical coming from this. Cainer91 20:33, 25 August 2007 (UTC) :::It's just a frontal system. Most occluded lows have LLCs.--Coredesat 00:41, 26 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Yeah, I spotted that one about two days ago. It's certainly an extratropical system, but a very impressive one. -- SkyFury 00:39, 27 August 2007 (UTC) It's impressive signature has fallen apart. Dead. I would post an image of it this morning, but I can't seem to access GIBBS. When I click on a time, all I get is a link saying "Satellite Image." Oh well... Cyclone1(02:06 UTC -27/08/2007) 06L.Felix See the Felix archive. If you think I've archived to early, or the storm comes back, kindly either start a new discussion here, move the text back onto this page, or (not really, don't try it) post on the archives. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 01:07, 6 September 2007 (UTC) :Let's just add the new stuff here and keep the old stuff archived. "At least 39 people have been reported dead. 38 of them have been in Nicaragua. At least 200 more are missing." Jesus Christ! This is bad. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 13:39, 6 September 2007 (UTC) :: No lets keep the old stuff in the Achives and the new Stuff on the Epac Page as the NHC are now tracking it in the EPAC Image TWO Jason Rees 17:58, 6 September 2007 (UTC) :::Good point. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:03, 7 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Now gone from the text TWO. -- RattleMan 17:08, 7 September 2007 (UTC) 93L.INVEST http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html Gulf of Mexico. Looks like it could very well spin up into something before landfall, but I'm NOT betting on ANYTHING, ANYMORE. 'Cyclone1(16:55 UTC -26/08/2007) :Window closing. It has less than 12 hours to develop. ''Cyclone1(22:07 UTC -26/08/2007) ::Needs more water. It's outta time. -- SkyFury 00:47, 27 August 2007 (UTC) 95L.INVEST Good chance of developing... RoswellAtup 02:12 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Not in the short term, sheer is high, but forcast to weaken. It's drifting south, maybe it'll form sometime on Friday. 'Cyclone1(22:23 UTC -29/08/2007) ::Just for archiving purposes, this is the low off the southeast coast. Cyclone1(22:36 UTC -29/08/2007) :::That looks kinda decent actually. Don't you think it's wierd that we've had only ONE hurricane so far? I think this season might be a bust (watch as 94 and 95 develop into hurricanes tomorrow as a direct result of my pessimism!). IP 23:12, 29 August 2007 (UTC) ::::A couple models develop this, though I question their accuracy. IP 23:29, 29 August 2007 (UTC) GFDL as a hurricane off to no-where, Alex style. IP 11:14, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Mmm.... Interesting... Anyone know what that thing to the northeast of it is? IP 11:18, 30 August 2007 (UTC) ::CMC goes Dean-like, cat-4 in open ocean :0 IP 11:20, 30 August 2007 (UTC) Weakening, says the NHC. IP 13:18, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Dissipated. IP 16:56, 30 August 2007 (UTC) AoI: Central Caribbean Made the TWO and it said some slow development could occur. The upper level environment doesn't suck, but it's not ideal either. I find it more interesting, however, than the thing/nothing off Africa. If there's anything to watch out there, it's this. It has a well defined spin to the clouds but no LLCC, says NHC. Convection is also minimal. -- SkyFury 00:45, 27 August 2007 (UTC) :Could flare up tonight, we may have an actual player on our hands. Or a 94L that last for 12 hours like the last two INVESTS. Who knows? Cyclone1(02:01 UTC -27/08/2007) ::NHC seems less enthusiastic about it now. -- SkyFury 16:35, 27 August 2007 (UTC) :::Major super crazy convection flare! Looks like it will be 95L soon. (Cyclone1 logged out) 01:23, 29 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Meh, nevermind. Cyclone1(22:16 UTC -29/08/2007) "Major super crazy convection flare!" I will treasure that one :P. Anyway, I have no idea what you're talking about, could someone point it out to me?. IP 23:40, 29 August 2007 (UTC) :Haha, yeah I have my moments. I followed that with "Meh, nevermind" (which is another phrase I use a lot when my predictions don't come to fruition) because the convection moved inland. I'll probably say that at least 10 more times before the season ends. :P Cyclone1(21:44 UTC -30/08/2007) 96L.INVEST & 97L.INVEST prior to NHC confirmation Up on the NRL, and they actually look pretty good. Theres the thing near 95L and then the thing in the Bay of Champeche. Neither one is up at INVEST level on NHC, but they both (I believe) made the TWO. IP 11:57, 30 August 2007 (UTC) 96L.INVEST Up on NHC, and it looks really good. IP 13:17, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Wow, the NRL is going INVEST crazy! It looks pretty nice, but also looks like it's slowly missing its chance to develop. Cyclone1(20:43 UTC -30/08/2007) ::GFDL still makes it a hurricane, and SHIPS puts it at 57 knots. I'm not so sure. I give it a 40% chance (down from 60 earlier) IP 21:53, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :::Wow. It already has a very nice circulation, all it needs is deeper convection. That could happen tonight. Cyclone1(22:17 UTC -30/08/2007) It also could not happen tonight. I think, though, that it will form tomorrow night to the day after (perhaps sooner) and I give it a 70% chance of doing so. 40% chance before that. To clarify. That 40% is not for overall formation. IP 22:23, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :A valid point. However, it looks like it better happen soon. It's window is slowly closing. Cyclone1(22:37 UTC -30/08/2007) ::Hmmm... You might be right about formation tonight. It looks better than it did a half hour ago. IP 23:11, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :::This thing really looks like it has an LLCC. Sure looks like a tropical depression to me. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:26, 30 August 2007 (UTC) Hey Cyclone1, do you think you might have your "TD 5 and 6" situation happen here in real life? It's a real possibility at this point. IP 23:35, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Somebody actually read my Hypothetical Hurricane season?! I'm flattered! I don't think so. Only one low, and my fake depressions formed from small mesoscale cyclones. Anyway, Eric. There is most definitely a LLCC. http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas19.png It is a TD by definition (kinda). BTW, nice signature! Wherever did you get the idea? Hehe. ;) 'Cyclone1(00:46 UTC -31/08/2007) ::I've been to the user pages of most of the people here. And scoured over them. I don't get Eric's. I don't think so either, but hey, the fact that there is about a point zero five or six percent chance that they'll form at the same time is interesting, eh? Ok, not really, but it is my way of telling you that I A) don't hate you and B) have lots of time on my hands. And yes, it's looking darn good. I wish there was more convection though, but the visible looked really good before sundown. IP 00:54, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::Haha! Hey, you think you have a lot of time on YOUR hands? I'm the guy writing it! :P I like Eric's page. He's an excellent writer and I enjoy reading his long posts like that (such as the Gordon Rant, which has been taken down). Anyway, 96L and 94L could definitely form at the same time, just the reason I included 5 and 6 together was because they were so close together, and so similar in every detail. ''Cyclone1(01:05 UTC -31/08/2007) ::::Which one, his wikipedia page or his hurricane-wikia page? I like his wikipedia page. And you haven't updated that thing significantly since who knows when! You're still on 07L! I'm the one who has to stay here all day posting updates every half hour! And I never said Eric wasn't a good writer. Most of us here are. It's just his page kinda freaks me out. It's overbearing. Kinda. And I was referring to the... Whoa! We're having, like, multiple civilish arguments. I just noticed that. And by the td-5, td-6 thing, anyway, I'm sorry, it wasn't very clear; I meant that the NHC had trouble figgering out which came first, that's what I was referring to. Also, BTW, I think your page is the best in the category, simply because it's not by Allistor Moody (No offense to him, but 220 MPH winds? Cat 5 hit on DC? C'mon!). Now, let's talk about the INVEST! IP 01:14, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::::His Wikia page. Well written. Yeah I know, I never update it like I should. I'll get time one day. I don't think we're arguing, just light, off-topic conversation. On the 5-6 thing, gotcha. And thank you! I put a lot of effort in my HH's I'm one of the very few that actually uploads images. Alastor Moody does go overboard a lot, but I guess it's his freedom. And, ok yes. Invest. On topic, hooray. So uh... how about that 96L, huh? 'Cyclone1(01:25 UTC -31/08/2007) Holy geez! TCFA issued! Something new to discuss! Woo hoo! Cyclone1(01:29 UTC -31/08/2007) I was about to say it was waning! This is fantabulous (I never use that word in public???) (editconflicted)! That's some good INVEST, eh? IP 01:34, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :Just goes to show you, you can't always trust the satellite. I'd say at this rate, a depression is likely, possibly by 11pm-5am. Cyclone1(01:39 UTC -31/08/2007) ::Aww, look at it! It's soooooo cute! Much better this morning. NHC seems less enthusiastic about it, but the TCFA is still there. IP 11:04, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::I think it's window has closed. Loss of centralized convection, with only cloud wisps available. It looks almost subtropical, but it's not. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:23, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::::TWO confirms this. I have a proclamation to make: THE END OF THE WEEK OF INVESTS HAS COME UPON US. THIS MARKS THE DISSIPATION OF THE LAST INVEST PRIOR TO SEPTEMBER. HERE WE GO GUYS, HERE WE GO. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:40, 31 August 2007 (UTC) 97L.INVEST I don't think it has enough water, but it does look pretty nice. IP 13:17, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Looking fair, I can see a possible depression out of this, maybe a 30% chance. Cyclone1(21:23 UTC -30/08/2007) ::I haven't seen it since 3:30, but it did look good. I give it slightly less, 20%. IP 21:54, 30 August 2007 (UTC) Dissipateding IP 11:04, 31 August 2007 (UTC) Nothing to see here... What the heck is that?! IP 23:57, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Umm, nothing that I see. I see 95L in the Bay of Campeche and some debris it left behind, but nothing to get excited about. What's this about? -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:13, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::I dunno... I saw something, I'm sure of that, but it's not there anymore... IP 00:23, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::It must've been that I saw it somewhere else... BTW, it's 97L. Whatever it was that I saw, it's nothing. IP 00:25, 31 August 2007 (UTC) AoI: 700 miles east-southeast of Cape Race I'm not kidding guys. The NHC has included this in the TWO, saying it has begun to develope some tropical characteristics. I have no idea what the &%$#@ they're talking about, but they say they're watching on the edge of their seats. I personally think it looks like your average low pressure system, not to mention that there has never, ever, ever, ever, EVER been a formation NEAR that area. IP 16:54, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :It's started to develop persistent deep convection around it's center, and is looking pretty good. I ''think (but don't quote me on this) that if this does develop into Subtropical Storm Felix/Gabrielle, it would be the most northerly forming storm on record. Go figure? Cainer91 19:48, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::I think, Cainer, you'd be right. I dunno what's up with it, it's interesting. Whoever did it, thanks for fixing the 'o', I didn't notice that (I'm an excessive shifter). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:06, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::Do what?! Wow, that's awesome!! Looks like Epsilon! We could have a record setter on our hands, guys! Cyclone1(21:12 UTC -31/08/2007) Whoa, boy, calm down! It does look nice, but the SSTs aren't fabulous, and it still only barely has SOME Tropical characteristics. But hey, it's not like it's not interesting! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:15, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :You're right. It's just super crazy far north, and it looks that good. AND it's nearly stationary. So, add all this together = crazy Cyclone1. :P Cyclone1(21:24 UTC -31/08/2007) ::The convection around the center is a nice touch though. It's been flung around all day by the low. Surprised it has that much way up. So what are our odds? I guess 3% subtropical/very powerful extra-tropical and .2% tropical depression. 0% for higher than depression. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:28, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::Wow, our percentages differ greatly. 65-75% Subtrop/tropical storm. 10% Hurricane. 0.2% Nothing. It is already stronger than depression strength. Cyclone1(21:37 UTC -31/08/2007) What?! Nobody told me of this! I'll revise! First option up 20%, second up 10%, third up 5%. I need to see this system do something significant before I go Cyclone1-ing (v. Overreacting to things. Lots of things.) ; ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:45, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :Yeah man. Winds could be up to 70mph right now. Easily. (Cyclone1-ing. Haha, I like that.) Cyclone1(21:52 UTC -31/08/2007) :Ok, put them all up another 75%, special. Yeah, I think I'll add that to my dictionary. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:55, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::BTW, that's not adding 75%, that's adding 75% of the current values. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 22:16, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::Dude! It looks like a Perfect Storm sequel up there! I'm not sure what kind of chance it has but a storm up there would be really cool. To my knowledge, a storm has never formed that far north, although plenty have come close. After a rough perusal of archives, Cesar in 1984 is the furthest north I saw. It formed at about 39 degrees north latitude. Of course, Hurricane Faith in 1966 stayed tropical past 60 north, so they've been up there. Faith came pretty close to hitting Norway as a tropical hurricane. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:47, 31 August 2007 (UTC) You can have non-tropical hurricanes?! Seriously though (I've said that about 12 times so far), it's a very interesting feature to watch, and yeah, it does kinda look like the Perfect Storm... [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:54, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :Yes you can have non-tropical hurricanes. They're rare, but they happen, most recently in 1979. There was also one in 1968. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:07, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::Wouldn't those just be extraordinarily powerful Sub-Trops though? Because wouldn't a powerful Sub-Trop not have all the same characteristics as a hurricane, thus rendering it a non-hurricane? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 00:14, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::Yes, they are still call subtropical storms. Even though they are rightfully hurricanes. This thing however, looks to be wanting to join the warm core family. (BTW, Eric, say your post on my wiki page, currently responding the top ten seasons of all time. Yeah, ten, I'm sick and bored and there's nothing on TV, and my computer won't acces YouTube right now. So yeah, 10) 'Cyclone1(00:24 UTC -1/09/2007) :::I love that. "Even though they are rightfully hurricanes". I'm keeping that one too ; ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 00:28, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Haha, I tend to give hurricanes human like qualities all the time. It's something you learn to ignore. XD Cyclone1(00:39 UTC -1/09/2007) :::::Oh yea! I was worried the talk pages were broken there for a little while, Cyclone1. I left several people messages and 24 hours later not one had responded. I was wondering if they had gotten through. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:28, 1 September 2007 (UTC) Looks like the door is closing for this dark horse. According to the latest TWO, it's looking less and less likely that we'll see anything coming from this system. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:48, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :Ahh man. This one looked so awesome! I'm gonna go lock myself in my room to think about cold core storms, put on my favorite AFI cd, and cry... *runs away to be emo* 'Cyclone1(03:01 UTC -1/09/2007) ::Cyclone1, calm down...gimme the knife and turn off the My Chemical Romance CD ;D. There will be others, I guarantee you, there will be others. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:09, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::Read the header. There will most likely never be a stationary storm with significant convection that is 700 miles east-southeast of Cape Race with potential for development. :::No, it'll be around 300 hundred miles. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 14:02, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::::I'm better. I stopped singing "Iris" long enough to watch Felix. Not that that's not a good song... "And I Don't want the world to see me... cuz' I don't think that they'd understand..." Cyclone1(22:37 UTC -1/09/2007) :::::Hey, I like that song! There nothing emo about that, that really happens to people. How about Blue October's 'Into the Ocean': "Into the ocean end it all, into the ocean end it all (repeat five more times). -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:42, 2 September 2007 (UTC) Haha, Love that song. But hey, I'll be just fine pretending I'm not. I'm far from lonely, and it's all that I've got. What's the worst thing I could say? "I've become so numb, that I can't feel you there,"? Pardon me while I burst into flames. I've had enough of the world and it's people's mindless games. I never said I lie and wait forever. I've got another confession my friend, I'm no fool. Hey, tell me what you thought about when you were gone and so alone.... If that sounded like mindless rambling, then we don't share the same taste in music. XD 'Cyclone1(02:38 UTC -2/09/2007) :Sorry, boredom. ''Cyclone1(02:38 UTC -2/09/2007) ::Pass the bong ;D -- [[User:SkyFury|'''''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|''Fury]] 21:07, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :::No, get your own. :P 'Cyclone1(22:31 UTC -2/09/2007) ::::HaHaHaHaHa! -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury''']] 01:46, 3 September 2007 (UTC)